June 27, 2023 - UNFXB

Mood improves ahead of ECB-speak, US data

There is a positive shift in risk mood early Tuesday as investors, with the US stock index futures trading in positive territory following the sharp decline seen in Wall Street‘s main indexes on Monday. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will deliver an introductory speech at the 2023 ECB Forum on Central Banking and several ECB policymakers will speak on policy and inflation later in the day. The US economic docket will feature Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales for May and CB Consumer Confidence Index for June.

During the Asian trading hours, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said that China was still on track to reach its annual growth target of around 5.0% for the year. “China will introduce more pragmatic measures to expand domestic demand and stimulate market vitality,” Li added. Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng indexes both gained more than 1% on Tuesday. Reflecting the negative impact of improving risk mood on the US Dollar’s (USD) performance, the US Dollar Index (DXY) declines toward 102.50.

EUR/USD closed flat near 1.0900 on Monday but regained its traction early Tuesday. The pair was last seen rising toward 1.0950.

Supported by the renewed USD weakness, GBP/USD edges higher toward 1.2750 in the European morning. Bank of England MPC Member Silvana Tenreyro will present a paper titled “Monetary policy in the face of supply shocks: the role of inflation expectations” at the ECB event.

USD/CAD stays on the back foot and trades at its lowest level since September below 1.3130. Statistics Canada will publish Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May in the early NA session.

AUD/USD gathered bullish momentum in the Asian trading hours and climbed above 0.6700, fuelled by China optimism.

USD/JPY continues to move sideways at around 143.50 as the Japanese Yen finds it difficult to find demand in the risk-positive market environment. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated on Tuesday that they “will respond appropriately if FX moves become excessive.”

Gold price ended the day virtually unchanged on Monday, with the modest rebound witnessed in the US Treasury bond yield limiting XAU/USD’s upside. The pair clings to small recovery gains at around $1,930 early Tuesday.

Bitcoin stays in its tight consolidation channel above $30,000 for the fourth straight day on Tuesday. Following Monday’s 2% decline, Ethereum recovers toward $1,900 in the European morning.

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EURUSD

EUR/USD is holding ground above 1.0900, as bulls look to a bunch of ECB policymakers and the US data to defend the previous rebound in Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair is on the front foot, as the US Dollar struggles amid a risk-on market mood.

 If the pair continues the uptrend to the range of 1.0953, it is expected to continue the uptrend to the range of 1.0988.

On the other hand, If the pair continues the downtrend to the range of 1.0904, it is expected to continue the downtrend to the range of 1.0889.

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair is demonstrating back-and-forth action around 143.50 in the early European session. The asset is expected to deliver a strong upside above 144.00 as investors are hoping that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to keep the monetary policy dovish in order to attain sustainable 2% inflation.

if the pair continues the uptrend to the range of 143.84, it is expected to continue the uptrend to the range of 144.61.

On the other hand, If the pair continues the downtrend to 143.07, it is expected to continue the downtrend to 142.62. 

GBPUSD

GBP/USD is advancing toward 1.2750, showing some resilience in the European morning this Tuesday. The pair is underpinned by the upbeat market mood and a broadly subdued US Dollar performance. All eyes are now on US Durable Goods and housing data.

If the pair continues the uptrend to the range of 1.2777, it is expected to continue the uptrend to the range of 1.2805.

On the other hand, if the pair continues the downtrend to 1.2716, it is expected to continue the downtrend to 1.2683.

AUDUSD

AUD/USD is edging higher to regain the 0.6700 level in Tuesday’s Asian trading. The US Dollar is losing ground amid an improving risk sentiment, as traders await top-tier US economic and Fedspeak. The Aussie also tracks the Yuan fix after the PBOC set it higher.

If the pair continues the uptrend to the range of 0.6742, it is expected to continue the uptrend to the range of 0.6822.        

On the other hand, if the pair continues the downtrend to 0.6705, it is expected to continue the downtrend to 0.6690.

XAUUSD

Gold clings to mild gains around the intraday high as it prints a three-day winning streak amid cautiously optimistic markets. The precious metal cheers the US Dollar’s positioning for the key data, as well as the risk-positive headlines from China, amid dicey trading hours on Tuesday.

If the pair continues the uptrend to the range 1930.87, it is expected to continue the uptrend to the range of 1943.46.

On the other hand, if gold continues the downtrend to the range of 1918.28, it is expected to continue the downtrend to the range 1905.69.

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